Week 8 Means One Thing: First Playoff Predicitions

Well that and JMU is off this week so there isn’t much to talk about.  Just to update those of you who have been living in a sealed room for the last seven weeks, JMU’s football team is having the best season in its history up to this point.  The Dukes have disposed of three teams who were in the top five when they played them and have a potential top five matchup looming again should Villanova move up between now and next Saturday.

Scotty McGee celebrates his Game-winning punt return TD against Richmond, 10/09/08

Scotty McGee celebrates his game-winning punt return TD against Richmond as James Madison remained undefeated in conference play.

Meanwhile, we are well into the heart of the football season.  It is hard to believe that it is more than halfway done but that only makes the excitement build as the playoff picture starts to take shape.  That being said, it is time to start looking where teams stand and what their chances are of getting into the FCS dance.

Once again the CAA has shown that it is, top to bottom, the best conference in the country.  As proof I offer just some results from last weekend: William & Mary, considered on the lower end of the conference, upsets #4 New Hampshire in Durham; Delaware, a finalist in the championship just last year, gets beaten at home by once lowly Maine who has shown they can hang with anyone.  How about Northeastern who is lighting up scoreboards on any foe they face?  They could easily knock out UNH this weekend.  Towson has a fantastic offense behind QB Sean Schaefer. Even though they don’t have the wins to prove it, I’d bet on them against most teams from the other conferences.

These are all arguments in what has become an annual rant for me saying that no less than five teams from the CAA should be in the 16 team bracket.  Sure I’ll give credit to the Southern or Missouri Valley Conferences when their teams start playing some decent competition and they prove they should be in the talk.

Now, let’s first understand a few things about the playoffs.  The Ivy League and the Southwestern Athletic Conference abstain from postseason play for their own reasons but that does not really affect anything as no team for either of those conferences are in the top 25.

Next we look at the conferences that get automatic berths for winning the overall title.  The following are the eight conferences with the teams that right now look like they are in the best position to win the overall title:

Big Sky – Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Colonial – James Madison Dukes

Missouri Valley (formerly Gateway) – Southern Illinois Salukis

Mid-Eastern Athletic – Hampton Pirates

Ohio Valley – Tennessee State Tigers

Patriot – Lafayette Leopards

Southern – Appalachian State Mountaineers

Southland – Central Arkansas Bears

That leaves us with eight spots to fill with each of the previous conferences eligible for at-large births along with four other conferences: Great West, Big South, Northeast, and Pioneer.  This does not mean that a team from any of those four conferences will get in.  It all depends on how they measure up against the teams from the Big Eight.

In fact, there are really only two teams who look like they could come out from the other four: Cal Poly and Liberty.  So if we take those two, that leaves six spots from the Big Eight which means that there will be some very good teams missing out.

So let’s say we look first at the CAA:  Richmond and Villanova have to get in.  UMass and New Hampshire are on the bubble but have very strong resumes.  But let’s go ahead and give two spots to the CAA here.

Southern is next:  Elon and Wofford look good to get in. Other than that, it’s tough to make arguments. So give them two as well.

That leaves two more spots up for grabs.  Montana will grab one if they stay on course due to their preceding reputation and the committee will have to decide on the last one.  I think there is no argument that we give it to either UMass or New Hampshire.  Four CAA teams is a must and right now let’s just say UMass gets it based on being ranked higher and looking like the more consistent team.

So here are the 16 playoff teams:  Northern Arizona, James Madison, Southern Illinois, Hampton, Tennessee State, Lafayette, Appalachian State, Central Arkansas, Richmond, Villanova, UMass, Elon, Wofford, Montana, Cal Poly, Liberty.

Now for the matchups, the committee tries to pair teams in terms of location so that first round trips aren’t too burdensome on the away team.  There are positives and negatives to this but generally there hasn’t been much opposition to it.  Based on rankings, relative location and making sure to have inter-conference matchups, here are possible matchups (home team in caps):

1 JAMES MADISON vs. Liberty

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. Central Arkansas

UMASS vs. Lafayette

4 WOFFORD vs. Richmond

3 ELON vs. Hampton

MONTANA vs. Cal Poly

VILLANOVA vs. Northern Arizona

2 APPALACHIAN STATE vs. Tennessee State

The only problem location-wise seems to be N. Arizona having to come across the country to play Villanova but those are the breaks sometimes (just ask Wofford who had to go to Montana in the first round last year).  This will definitely change as the weeks progress but its nice that we’re back in this part of the year.

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